Dodge Releases Construction Estimates During Shutdown
Key Highlights
- Dodge estimates September private housing starts at 1.3 million, a slight increase from August;
- Construction spending in August is estimated at $2.2B, down 1.3% from July and 4.3% from August 2024, indicating a slowdown in activity;
- The data underscores ongoing industry resilience amid federal data reporting disruptions, with detailed insights into single-family and multi-unit housing starts.
By ERIC GAUS, Dodge Chief Economist
With the U.S. Census Bureau unable to release its Construction Spending and Housing Starts data due to the ongoing government shutdown, Dodge Construction Network’s (Dodge) Economics team has developed independent estimates of what the Census likely would have reported.
As a trusted and long-standing resource in the industry, Dodge is well positioned to provide these estimates. Dodge supplies some of the inputs used in the Census’ own Construction Spending calculations and has collected detailed construction starts data for decades. Our data collection methodology is nearly identical to Census in the case of single–family homes, while our broader dataset is directly tied to projects we track from their earliest planning stages until shovels break ground, and they are officially labeled a “construction start”, a term originally coined by Dodge
While our data reporting categories usually differ from Census, these estimates follow Census’ conventions to ensure consistency and clarity during this period without official federal data.
Housing Starts
Dodge estimates that Census privately-owned Housing Starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,318,000. This is 0.8 percent (±10.7 percent)* above the Census’ initial August estimate of 1, 307,000 and is 2.9 percent (±9.7 percent)* below the September 2024 rate of 1,357,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 916,000; this is 2.9 percent (±8.2 percent)* above the Census’ initial August figure of 890,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 390,000.
Total Construction Spending
Dodge estimates that Census Construction Spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,111.0 billion, 1.3 percent (±0.8 percent)* below the Census’ initial July estimate of $2,139.1 billion. The August figure is 4.3 percent (±1.5 percent) below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.
During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,431.6 billion, 3.1 percent (±1.0 percent) below the $1,462.4 billion for the same period in 2024.
Dodge maintains a digitized database of historical Construction Starts dating back to 1967 and provides forecasts starts, spending, and building stock across more than 20 construction categories. Our commercial construction starts data serves as a primary input for the U.S. Census Bureau’s Construction Put in Place (spending) calculations.
For more monthly insights on construction activity across key sectors, explore our latest industry reports.
####