What's New? What's Next? for 2026
As our industry embarks on yet another year of innovation, adaptation, education, and constantly evolving challenges, HPAC Engineering asked members of its editorial advisory board and several other HVACR thought leaders to tell us what they expect and/or hope to see in 2026.
Some had more to say than others. But all offered earnest insights. From refrigerants to cybersecurity, artificial intelligence to indoor air quality, sustainability to next-generation recruiting, here is their take and what's ahead this year...
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Bill McQuade, PE, LEED AP, CDP, FASHRAE, 2025-26 ASHRAE President
Global VP and Head of Government Affairs and Sustainability, Baltimore Aircoil
The impact of Generative AI will continue to grow, impacting both demand for commercial equipment to cool data centers and on intelligent buildings and AI-facilitated MEP design. Higher operating temperature for chips will open up new approaches to data center design.
Increasing awareness of the importance and value of IEQ at both the enterprise and societal level will impact designs for commercial new construction and major retrofits.
The transition to A2L refrigerants will require more training for both designers and service contractors. Despite our diligence in preparing for the transition our, industry will learn some lessons along the way and have to adapt our standards and approaches accordingly.
Decarbonization and resilience will be key drivers impacting commercial building design globally.
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Stephanie Taylor, MD, M Arch., Medical Advisor, ThinkLite Air
The U.S. government has recently dropped the ball on clean air by rolling back restrictions on fossil fuel energy use. As a result, the responsibility for good IAQ is on the shoulders of those who determine budgets for capital and operating cost of buildings. Meanwhile, increases in illnesses following exposure to air toxins released by wildfires across the North American continent have reinforced the need to design spaces with safe IAQ.
Will businesses and building owners invest in protecting occupant health through indoor air monitoring and remediation solutions, or not? I certainly hope the answer is yes.
To move forward, building decision makers must expand their cost analyses to include occupant productivity and health. Thankfully, ASHRAE’s president Bill McQuade has made healthy indoor environments a key goal for his tenure. So I am trying to remain optimistic about the future of safe IAQ and the immensity of the opportunity to decrease acute and chronic illnesses through health IAQ remains.
The question is... Will we seize this opportunity?
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Kent Peterson, PE, FASHRAE, Chief Technical Officer, P2S Inc.
The breakout of collaborative AI in MEP design will define 2026. Engineers will increasingly partner with AI tools that draw on vast data sets and internal company knowledge bases to accelerate design cycles and improve quality. AI-powered predictive analytics will optimize HVAC system performance, and generative design tools will help engineers explore more options faster than ever.
This isn't about replacing engineers; it's about using available technology to amplify their capabilities. We saw this in the 1980s when computers were introduced to assist design. Clients want more for less, and collaborative AI can help us deliver sustainable, elegant solutions.
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Burcin Kaplanoglu, Chief Technology Officer, SBK Technologies
Co-founder, Oracle Construction Innovation Laboratory
We will start to see robots on our job sites. We haven’t seen much robotics due to the complexity of our working environment. But now, robots are becoming agile and able to move around in our world.
Technology has improved significantly over the last two years, driven by advances in hardware and software. We are using reinforcement learning, motion capture, and simulation to make them adoptable. They are no longer limited to the form factor of human movements. Also, they are getting cheaper and more durable. So robots will help us fill the labor shortage and improve both productivity and safety on our jobsites.
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I’m a firm believer that AI can’t replace skilled labor. However, it would be naive (and frankly, shortsighted) to think that we can move forward as an industry without exploring AI deployments – whether it be streamlining routine tasks, improving quick access to information, or handling prep work. At NFPA, for example, we’ve enabled some exciting new AI features within NFPA LiNK® that we hope will be incredibly valuable to users from a safety perspective. As others in our industry have said, now is the time for skilled workers to start adopting AI to help them do more and to stay competitive.
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Charles E. Gulledge III, PE, FASHRAE, HBDP, LEED AP
Director of Engineering - Construction, Environmental Air Systems LLC
The big push now is ultra-low dew point dehumidification, hyperscale data centers, and technical water direct-to-chip, and perhaps dust collection. We are expecting a robust year in 2026. Strong bookings and backlog in the data center, pharma, and advanced manufacturing space. So, I am looking for talent!
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Nancy Kohout, PE, LEED AP, BD+C, Senior Principal | Mechanical, SmithGroup Inc.
Industry changes in 2026 will include rising rack power densities in data centers and a shift toward cooling strategies that avoid both evaporative water use and compressors. As cooling fluid return temperatures approach 130°F, direct waste heat reuse becomes simpler and more economically viable—ideally supported by emerging policy or advanced by innovative designers.
Grid-interactive design and load shifting will grow in importance as data center demand strains infrastructure, with thermal and electrical storage, heat pumps, and geothermal systems playing key roles. Despite some federal IRA rollbacks, geothermal remains incentivized, supporting decarbonization driven by state, local, utility, and corporate goals.
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Ron Wilkinson, PE, LEED AP, CPMP, aka "Johnny Tundra"
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Nancy Simoneau, Chair, American Boiler Manufacturers Association (ABMA)
President, Le Groupe Simoneau Inc.
From my perspective, 2026 will reward decisiveness. The HVACR and boiler industry is no longer waiting for certainty. It is learning to move through it. Inflation, geopolitics, and supply volatility remain real, but climate pressure, energy efficiency mandates, and aging infrastructure leave little room for delay. Investment will continue, especially in industrial and institutional markets.
So we will see clear winners and a few hard resets among major players this year. Success in 2026 will belong to organizations that collaborate, move with purpose, protect their people, and stay relentlessly focused on customer trust.
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Asokdas Damodaran, President, AMCA International; Managing Director, Systemair India
As ventilation standards evolve globally, the HVAC industry is moving decisively towards sustainability, performance transparency, and lifecycle value, yet progress remains uneven due to fragmented regulations. Against this backdrop, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are no longer merely following global trends in air movement and control; they are starting to shape them. In India, for example, we see a change in the momentum as AMCA and Eurovent standards are increasingly embedded in national regulations, signalling a clear shift towards higher efficiency and verified performance.
At the same time, rapid investment in India’s sunrise sectors, such as solar, EVs, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, is driving strong demand for high quality, energy-efficient, hygienic, and certified solutions, leading to greater investment in production among manufacturers.
My appointment as AMCA President for 2025–2026, as the first from South Asia, reflects this shift. Guided by the theme “Global Vision. Sustainable Action,” my priorities include strengthening AMCA standards, expanding the Certified Ratings Program beyond compliance, and developing clearer performance differentiators through collaboration. By aligning regions globally while enabling local action, AMCA can drive a more resilient and sustainable HVAC industry.
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Liz Beardsley, Senior Policy Counsel, U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC)
This coming year, we expect to see increased investment in existing buildings and their energy and HVAC systems. Owners and developers are being driven to renovate by several factors. First and foremost, building performance standards, benchmarking, and emissions disclosures (including global investors subject to EU requirements) together are creating a regulatory push.
Second, construction costs spikes, both tariff-related and labor shortage, along with the cost of capital seem to disfavor big new construction projects in the U.S. right now. The OBBA’s restoration of 100% expensing for capital real estate investments also is a significant enabler of renovation starting this year. Lastly, owners are motivated to reposition assets in soft CRE markets, and may find opportunities for conversions as the housing crisis ensues. In sum: existing buildings will see resurged investment including upgrading and modernizing HVAC for efficiency and grid-connectedness.
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Larry Clark, PE, author of Clark's Remarks
To be honest, I am very concerned right now that climate change seems to have fallen off the mainstream radar. It was a big issue during the last U.S. presidential campaign, but now, both sides seem to have gone dark on the subject. Nevertheless, climate change remains a clear and present danger. To our credit, engineers are still very much engaged on sustainability and decarbonization.
But if this issue fades from the headlines and the general public is allowed to just forget about it, then all the gains we had made in recent years will be forgotten. The momentum of the whole movement will be set back for years. And time was already of the essence.
So my hope for 2026 is that climate change will once again become a priority here in the U.S., like it still is overseas. Not to sound too alarmist, but we are truly running out of time.
Kenneth M. Elovitz, PE, Esq.
Regarding A2L Refrigerants - New air conditioning and refrigeration systems will utilize low Global Warming Potential (GWP) "mildly" flammable refrigerants like R-454B and R-32. Codes and standards are evolving to define safety considerations that the "mild" flammability presents. ASHRAE Standard 15-2024 already has 7 addenda in just over a year since the standard was issued, so it might not be feasible or even possible for engineers yet to know what the standards say and how to apply them properly.
Nevertheless, engineers can utilize long accepted practices like refrigerant detection and alarm, as well as service access space, minimum machinery room volume, and ventilation. Machinery room exhaust fans might need to be spark resistant construction with motors out of the air stream.
While engineers are not usually responsible for safe work practices, a design that makes it impossible or even difficult for mechanics to work safely might deviate from the engineer's standard of care.
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Owner/operators of grocery stores are tying to make design decisions now but concerned about cost associated with changing equipment before it’s end of life just to meet today’s “code requirements” but by the time they install the “new” equipment the rules change and they did not need to remove equipment that still had useful “life.”
OEMs and consultants are stuck trying to read tea leaves and therefore can’t really provide good direction or options due to the unknowns.
Adoption and installation of A2L-based supermarket refrigeration systems will start to ramp up slowly in 2026, most owner/operators are moving forward with CO2 but watching the outcome of the first A2L projects with great interest.
Fear that an inspector could stall a grand opening for a code requirement that that was not addressed in the manner they expected Best practices are not yet established and some of the leak mitigation infrastructure may cause the refrigeration equipment to shut off or pump down unnecessarily (no leak, but something in the control or sensor thinks there is a leak and the system no longer keeps the products cold).
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