On July 20, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) released a mid-year update to its annual AIA Consensus Construction Forecast for 2026, unveiled six months ago. 

"The outlook for nonresidential construction is increasingly K-shaped," noted AIA Chief Economist Richard Branch on LinkedIn. "Overall spending is now projected to decline slightly in 2026 before returning to modest growth in 2027."

Compared with AIA's January forecast, consensus panel members downgraded their expectations for 2026 but raised their projections for 2027— "suggesting that the anticipated recovery has been delayed rather than eliminated," Branch added.

But the headline numbers mask widening differences across sectors, he explained. At the top of the “K,” data centers continue their extraordinary rise, with spending forecast to increase 33% this year and another 25% in 2027. Health care, amusement and recreation, and hotels sectors are also expected to post gains, Branch said.

Members of the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel downgraded their 2026 spending outlook from a 1.0% increase in this past January’s forecast to a 0.3% decline in the latest update. The largest downgrade in the forecast was for manufacturing spending, which is now expected to decline 11.6% in 2026, following a 6.7% drop in 2025.

However, the panel is now actually more upbeat about 2027, raising its spending forecast from an increase of 2.2% to 3.0%.  

"That is the core of the K-shaped story: Parts of the market tied to public funding, health care demand, and AI-related investment continue to move forward, while more interest-rate-sensitive and discretionary sectors remain under pressure," said Branch.

Below is the latest consensus forecast. To view the individual forecasts via AIA's interactive table, click here.

In addition to AIA, the eight other panel members are Dodge Construction Network, Moody's Analytics, FMI, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), Wells Fargo Securities, Markstein Advisors, and Piedmont Crescent Capital.

Respectively, the individual forecasters now are making these predictions for 2026 and 2027...

• Dodge Construction Network: -1.3% and +2.9%
• Moody's Analytics: -1.4% and +1.6%
• FMI Corp: -1.7% and +3.6%
• ConstructConnect: +4.7% and +6.7%
• Associated Builders and Contractors: -1.9% and +0.2%
• Wells Fargo Securities: +1.9% and +4.4%
• Markstein Advisors: -1.4% and +0.3%
• Piedmont Crescent Capital: -1.5% and +4.1%.

For more detail, view the interactive table. To read the rest of AIA's mid-year analysis, click here.

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